We have written at various times, since the “limited military operation” of Russia against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, that this war must be analyzed very particularly in the political context in which it began, to understand it. Obviously we talk about “understanding it”, which does not mean understanding it, much less accepting it. But “to understand it” is to make an accurate diagnosis of the circumstances that motivated it, to be able to confront it in the most effective way possible to put an end to it, and of the conditions under which an eventual peace agreement, or an armistice, could be achieved.
It is also necessary to keep in mind that the law of the strongest is what, since the human world has existed, ordinarily establishes the rules by which States relate to each other, create and destroy them. That being said, this war conflict is what begins the attempt to achieve a new world geopolitical order different from that which emerged after the Second World War in 1945. Said global geopolitical order was bipolar with the US and the USSR leading both poles, the Western and the communist, respectively, with some “non-aligned” countries between the two, but without real capacity for influence.
After the fall of Berlin Wall in 1989 and the implosion of the USSR On December 8, 1991, without military hostilities between both sides, global geopolitics became unipolar and led by the US. Tacitly accepted by those belonging to the not aligned and by those resigned to assuming Western economic values, the world has experienced various local conflicts, but not integrated into a joint strategy to end that hegemonic (western) order.
From 1992 to 2022, 30 years have passed in this situation, since in February 2022, a Russia already recovered from the debacle of ceasing to lead a superpower USSR – to become a defeated, disoriented and self-conscious Russia – has decided raise your head again among the nations. She did it with Putinagreeing with Xi Jinping in command of a China that, having achieved great industrial technological development and united a population of 1.4 billion inhabitants, has turned it into a true superpower.
Both leaders signed in Beijing, after finishing the Winter Olympic Games in February 2022, a bilateral cooperation Treaty that requires knowledge to understand the war in Ukraine, and those that will foreseeably occur, such as the one in Loop currently in Middle East.
In this “historic” Treaty – thus described by Xi Jinping and Putin – they agree to terminate the hegemonic US geopolitical order to which we have referred, and replace it with a new “multipolar” world order. In the last 20th century, the two world wars successively illuminated the Order with which the present 21st century began, but the nuclear weapon with which the Second War ended in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Today it is no longer exclusive to the United States, which makes a Third “conventional” War – frontal and global – between two sides virtually impossible.
The DMA –Mutual Assured Destruction– was the pillar that kept the war as coldavoiding a nuclear war between 1945 and 1991. Now the WFD is still in force, but China and Russia have promoted the BRICS economic alliance -Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa- whose weight in GDP and world population, together with the possession of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, make it a de facto great superpower.
Putin’s first action after returning to Moscow once the Treaty with Xi Jimping was signed was to begin the invasion of Ukraine, which is but the first scenario in which he fights for this new multipolar order, which has a pole in Russia. outstanding. China is waiting for the evolution of that war of attrition between the US and Russia, with NATO and Zelensky as intermediaries, the former providing the weapons and Ukraine the victims. The fate of hegemony in the Indo-Pacific will depend on its result. Taiwan as the next war scenario. Iran is a candidate to join the BRICS, and launched the war in the country through Hamas. pole of the Middle East to displace the western Israel.
