(CNN) – Rainbow flags fluttered in the wind as gay and lesbian couples walked hand in hand down a makeshift walkway in Bangkok’s busy Siam shopping district.
The Thai Senate had just passed a marriage equality bill, and the local LGBTQ+ community was in the mood to celebrate.
Although the ceremonies were symbolic representations of same-sex weddings, reality could be just around the corner.
“When I was young, people said we couldn’t have a family, we couldn’t have children, so marriage was impossible,” Bangkok resident Pokpong Jitjaiyai told CNN on the day the law was passed.
“Now I can freely say that I am gay,” said Pokpong, who was eager to marry his partner, Watit Benjamonkolchai.
The law, passed in June, still needs the king’s approval, but is expected soon, clearing the way for Thailand to become the first jurisdiction in Southeast Asia to legalize same-sex marriage, and the third from Asia after Taiwan in 2019 and Nepal last year.
But the recent spate of progress on marriage equality in Asia could stop there, as it appears unlikely that any other government in the region will follow suit any time soon.
“The truth is that not many governments are moving as proactively as Thailand’s,” Suen Yiu-tung, an associate professor of gender studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told CNN.
More than 30 jurisdictions around the world now recognize same-sex marriage, according to the Pew Research Center. Since the first law on same-sex marriage was passed in the Netherlands in 2001, progress has occurred especially in Europe, America and Australasia.
Just across Thailand’s borders, homosexuality is illegal in Myanmar and Malaysia. There are also bans in Sri Lanka, Brunei, Bangladesh and the ultra-conservative Indonesian province of Aceh. Maximum penalties range from lengthy prison sentences to flogging, according to the Human Dignity Trust, a UK-based body that supports strategic litigation around the world against laws that harm the LGBTQ+ community.
“Despite some historic victories in the region… the human rights of LGBTI people continue to be denied across Asia,” said Nadia Rahman, policy advisor for Amnesty International’s Global Migrant, Refugee and Justice Programme. Racial and Gender. She added that people in these communities face “criminalization, threats of arrest, discrimination, digital surveillance, harassment, online abuse, stigmatization and violence.”
While liberalization in Thailand, Nepal and Taiwan was driven by the unique cultures and sociopolitical circumstances of those places, scholars and activists noted, most other Asian governments are held back by conservative social attitudes, influential religious groups and a lack of solid democratic systems.
Activists and academics in Asia say Nepal has long had a liberal judiciary willing to side with the LGBTQ+ community, while its deep-rooted culture of third-gender “hijras” laid the groundwork for liberal changes. In Thailand and Taiwan, many attribute progress to a combination of democratic development and a strong civil society.
Associate Professor Kangwan Fongkaew, who researches LGBTQ+ issues at Burapha University, said that despite the political instability of recent decades, the Thai political system was functional enough to channel popular demands into legislation.
“The majority of the Thai population wants marriage equality,” Kangwan said. “And now it’s time for Thailand to have it,” she added, calling it a “victory of the people.”
Unlike mainland China – where LGBTQ+ activism is taboo and can provoke violent reactions from authorities – the movement has flourished in Taiwan. Activist Jennifer Lu, director of gay rights organization Outright International in Taiwan, noted the importance of the island’s functioning democratic system in the liberalization process.
“This kind of democratic practice really creates the foundation for this progressive environment,” Lu said.
Acceptance of non-traditional gender identities has grown stronger since then. In May, then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen invited drag queen Nymphia Wind to perform at the Presidential Office to celebrate her win on the television show “RuPaul’s Drag Race.”
Although other Asian jurisdictions have the potential to be the fourth to allow marriage for LGBTQ+ couples, experts say they are not convinced the changes will come soon.
India is also a democracy and, like its neighbor Nepal, has laws that protect transgender people, making it a legitimate candidate. But activists say authorities are lukewarm about the need for change.
Activist Anish Gawande, co-founder of Pink List India, a group that tracks politicians’ stance on LGBTQ+ issues, said understanding of sexual minorities is growing in the world’s most populous nation. He has recently been named the first openly gay national spokesperson for a political party. But he said the government refuses to do more than is necessary to please the international community.
LGBTQ+ activists petitioned India’s Supreme Court for the right to marry, only to be told it was up to the government to decide.
The government, led by third-term Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has set up a committee to study the issue, but without any notable results, Gawande said, adding that without New Delhi or the courts taking the lead in the matter there had been “ a dead end for LGBTQ+ rights in the country.”
Officials said experts had provided suggestions. CNN has contacted the committee for comment.
One of the arguments in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage is the economic advantages of doing so, especially if neighboring economies do not do so.
Multinational companies need to relocate their staff – including those who are not heterosexual – and have been pushing for change in financial centers such as Singapore and Hong Kong, which would like to attract and retain the headquarters of large companies.
“If you are a country that welcomes these high-tech companies with very liberal policies, but the rest of society is repressive, like Singapore for example, where same-sex couples cannot get visas, governments will have to think about how manage these things,” said Shawna Tang, a professor of gender studies at the University of Sydney.
But even in the face of these pressures, neither the Hong Kong nor Singapore governments seem especially willing to liberalize.
Singapore’s Parliament decriminalized sexual relations between men in 2022, but amended the Constitution to effectively block judicial remedies that could lead to same-sex marriage.
In Hong Kong, the Court of Final Appeal ordered the city government last September to create a legal framework to recognize the rights of same-sex couples. But months have passed and the government still has not responded.
The court also stopped short of granting same-sex marriage, meaning this could be as far as the efforts go. According to activists, Beijing has tightened its control over the city in recent years, so the political space needed to facilitate change is shrinking.
Professor Peter Newman of the University of Toronto’s Factor-Inwentash School of Social Work said that while things are improving in Asia, progress has been “extremely uneven.”
In at least six Asian countries, intimacy and relationships between people of the same sex continue to be criminalized, as well as the gender expression of transsexual people, with sentences ranging from eight years to “100 lashes” in Indonesia and Malaysia. , up to life imprisonment in Bangladesh,” he stated.
Even in places where same-sex marriage has been legalized, widespread problems remain, from bullying at school and at work to stigma in healthcare services.
But Suen, of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said public debates have flourished across Asia, and Thailand’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage was an encouraging sign.
“The outlook is positive, but it will take a while,” Suen said.
CNN’s Samra Zulfaqar, Yoonjung Seo and Aishwarya Iyer contributed to this report.
