We have already had occasion in previous articles to comment that we are de facto in a Third World War, although we describe it as “unconventional” to the extent that a new global geopolitical order is in dispute, there are not two sides that dispute it frontally, as was the case in the two previous major contests. The atomic weapon and the reality of a DMA—»Mutually Assured Destruction»—between the contenders demands it. That is why new «multipolar» geopolitical order agreed between China and Russia in Beijing in February 2022 is decided in countries (poles) in different locations and with various intermediaries for the occasion.
The war in Ukraine is a war between The US and Russia with NATO and Zelensky as instruments of the Americans, with Zelensky providing the victims and the US providing the dollars and weapons. And NATO supporting a country that is not even a member of the Atlantic Alliance. It is a war of attrition promoted by the US that does not passively resign itself to losing its, until now, global hegemony, achieved after the disappearance of the USSR.
We have already commented that the founding of AUKUS, —the “NATO of the Pacific”— in 2021, precipitated the bilateral Treaty of Beijing a few months later and that motivated the invasion of Ukraine immediately by Russia. What is at stake is the zone of influence of the United States and Russia in that area of Eastern Europe, which in turn will delimit the zone of influence between the United States and China in the strategic area of the Indo Pacific, with Taiwan on the immediate horizon.
In this scenario, the immediate US presidential elections —November 5— have a decisive role in the evolution of the war with Russia given that a victory for Trump — publicly confronted by the deep state— would mean a negotiated end, with the Crimean peninsula—and perhaps Donbass territories—officially for Russia, in exchange for peace with a neutrality status for Ukraine outside the Atlantic Alliance.
If Kamala Harris wins that negotiated ending does not seem assured in the short term, with the risk of escalation if Zelensky sought specific success to achieve a better negotiating position, which is more illusory than real currently. It should not be forgotten that in the spring of 2022, shortly after the war began, with Erdogan in Ankara and NATO member Turkey acting as mediator, an agreement was reached that was prevented by the US and the United Kingdom.
In the other pole After the war, in the Middle East, Israel has completely defeated Hamas in Gaza and now wants to do the same with Hezbollah in Lebanon, in order to eliminate the terrorist threat that has been operating for decades and threatening your safety at one end and the other of their State. The blow to its charismatic leader, Hasan Nasrallah, in the Shiite neighborhood of Beirut, means a very qualified blow to their moraleby demonstrating Israel’s very high military capacity, which may be the prelude to a ground operation in southern Lebanon similar to the one carried out in Gaza to operationally neutralize Hezbollah.
At the moment it is already acting in Yemen to do the same with the Houthi militiamenalso declared enemies of the State of Israel. It is a third front in the Eastern Pole where the Iranian Islamic Republic is fighting for its zone of influence there, against the American ally through those three terrorist organizations that depend on it, established until now in Gaza, southern Lebanon and Yemen. It remains to be seen Iran’s response to this evolution of the war, since a frontal war between Iran and Israel would be on the limit of a true WFD. given the nuclear capacity of both potential contenders. Of course, in the current situation, the risk of a frontal military escalation between the two, declared enemies, seems too close not to express serious concern that a “human error” could trigger a Third World War that can no longer be considered “unconventional.” » but precisely as conventional as it is apocalyptic. The world is in danger due to the atony of a society mired in the “frog syndrome.”
